us-tarrif-impacts-on-gmp-of-newly-launched-ipo
In mid-2025, the US imposed higher tariffs on Indian exports, starting with 25% in August 2025 and escalating further later that month.
While tariffs directly affect exporters, their indirect impact on IPO sentiment was immediate — especially visible in the Grey Market Premium (GMP) of newly launched Indian IPOs.
This article analyses:
- Indian IPOs launched between July–December 2025
- How GMP behaved before vs after tariff escalation
- What retail investors should learn from this phase
What is GMP & Why It Reflects Investor Sentiment
Grey Market Premium (GMP) is an unofficial indicator showing:
- Expected listing gains
- Institutional & retail confidence
- Short-term risk appetite
Historically, GMP reacts faster than stock prices to macro events like tariffs, interest rate shocks, or geopolitical risks.
Timeline: US Tariffs vs IPO Activity
| Date | Event | Market Reaction |
| July 2025 | Stable IPO pipeline | High GMPs |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 25% US tariff announced | GMP volatility |
| Late Aug 2025 | Tariff escalation | GMP compression |
| Sep–Oct 2025 | Risk-off phase | Discount listings |
| Dec 2025 | Domestic liquidity recovery | Select IPOs outperform |
Indian IPO GMP Data: Before vs After US Tariffs
Key IPOs & GMP Movement (July–Dec 2025)
| IPO | Sector | GMP Before Tariff | GMP at Listing | GMP Impact |
| GNG Electronics | Electronics | 38% | 50% | ✅ Positive |
| Aditya Infotech | Security Tech | 38% | 61% | ✅ Strong |
| Sri Lotus Developers | Real Estate | 30% | 19% | 🔻 Weakened |
| Laxmi India Finance | NBFC | 11% | -13% | ❌ Negative |
| M&B Engineering | Infra | 17% | 0% | ❌ Neutralised |
| NSDL | Financial Infra | 17% | 17% | ➖ Stable |
| Shreeji Shipping | Logistics | 13% | 8% | 🔻 Reduced |
| Ganesh Consumer | FMCG | 3% | -9% | ❌ Sharp Drop |
| Jaro Institute | EdTech | 12% | -15% | ❌ Severe |
| Canara HSBC Life | Insurance | 12% | 0% | ❌ Flat |
| ICICI AMC | Financial Services | 8% | 20% | ✅ Recovery |
| Meesho | E-commerce | 35% | 46% | ✅ Outperformed |
| Park Medi World | Healthcare | 16% | -7% | ❌ Weak |
Sector-Wise GMP Impact Analysis
| Sector | Tariff Sensitivity | GMP Trend |
| Export-linked Manufacturing | High | Negative |
| NBFC & Insurance | Medium | Weak |
| FMCG & Consumption | Medium | Volatile |
| Tech & Platform Businesses | Low | Strong |
| Financial Infrastructure | Low | Stable |
Insight:
IPOs with domestic revenue focus showed better GMP resilience.
What Changed After US Tariffs? (Key Observations)
1 GMP Compression Became Common
Many IPOs lost 10–30 percentage points in expected listing gains.
2 Subscription ≠ Listing Gains
Even 20x–50x subscribed IPOs listed flat or negative.
3 Risk Appetite Shifted
Investors preferred:
- Cash-rich businesses
- Platform models
- Non-export-dependent companies
Lessons for IPO Investors
✔ GMP is macro-sensitive, not just company-driven
✔ High subscription does not guarantee listing gains
✔ Global events can override fundamentals in the short term
✔ Sector exposure matters during geopolitical shocks
Final Verdict: Did US Tariffs Kill IPOs?
No — but they reset expectations.
- IPO activity continued
- GMP became selective, not broad-based
- Strong domestic stories still delivered returns
- Weak fundamentals were punished harder
Summary
The US tariff hike in 2025 caused significant volatility in Indian IPO GMPs. Export-oriented and financial IPOs saw GMP erosion, while tech and domestic consumption-focused IPOs remained resilient. GMP proved to be a fast-reacting indicator of investor risk sentiment during geopolitical uncertainty.
Key Sector Insights From Chart
Technology / Platform IPOs
- GMP Change: +16%
- Least affected by US tariffs
- Strong domestic + digital demand (e.g. Meesho, Aditya Infotech)
Financial Services (NBFC, Insurance)
- GMP Change: -6%
- Valuation-sensitive, risk-off sentiment hurt listings
Manufacturing & Infra
- GMP Change: -19%
- High export exposure + cost pressure
- Tariffs directly impacted sentiment
Consumer / FMCG
- GMP Change: -15%
- Margin pressure fears, weak discretionary demand
Healthcare
- GMP Change: -23% (worst hit)
- Export-linked pharma & hospitals saw sharp GMP erosion
Logistics
- GMP Change: -5%
- Mixed impact, slightly resilient due to domestic consumption
Investor Takeaway
During macro shocks like US tariffs, sector exposure matters more than subscription numbers.
IPO GMP data from 2025 shows domestic-tech resilience and export-sector vulnerability.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a certified financial advisor before making investment decisions. GMP data is unofficial and speculative.
