Prakash Behura’s Quarterly Swing Trading Strategy: How to earn 50%+ Annual Returns?

From 6 Years of Losses to 8+ Years of Consistent Profits

Prakash Behura spent six years losing money in options trading. Despite having an MBA in Finance and working in investor relations, he couldn’t crack the code. He lost ₹2-3 lakhs trying various strategies, indicators, and tips—nothing worked.

Then everything changed.

In 2018, after joining a publishing house surrounded by trading books, Prakash discovered a systematic approach that matched his temperament: combining rigorous fundamental screening with patient technical entries, executing quarterly rotations, and managing risk at the portfolio level.

The results?

Over the past 8+ years, this strategy has consistently delivered:

• 12-15% returns per quarter (target)
• 50-60% annual returns (compounded)
• Only 2-3 stop-loss quarters in 8 years
• Less than 10 minutes of daily monitoring required

Most importantly, it works perfectly for working professionals who can’t watch markets all day.

Why This Strategy Works: The Core Philosophy

1. Patience is Your Competitive Edge

The market is a machine for moving money from impatient to patient people.

Here’s what happens on result announcement day:

• Company declares excellent quarterly results
• Stock surges 15-25% immediately
• Retail traders buy in FOMO, media creates hype
• FIIs and institutions (who positioned earlier) start selling

Prakash’s approach: Wait for the euphoria to fade. Let the stock retrace 15-20% from its post-result high. Then enter when others are disappointed.

Why it works: You buy at fair value with fundamentally strong stocks, avoiding the “retail trap” of buying at peaks.

2. Fundamentals Do 80% of Work, Technical Does 20%

Most traders flip this ratio. They focus on charts, indicators, and patterns while ignoring business quality.

Prakash’s hierarchy:

1. First: Screen for high-growth fundamentals (filters 4,000 stocks → 20-30)
2. Second: Deep dive to verify quality (20-30 stocks → 5-10 watchlist)
3. Third: Use technical analysis only for entry timing
4. Never: Buy technically strong but fundamentally weak stocks

The logic: A fundamentally strong stock that drops 10% will likely recover. A fundamentally weak stock with a “perfect chart pattern” might never come back.

3. Portfolio-Level Thinking Eliminates Emotional Decisions

Individual stock tracking causes emotional chaos:

• One stock up 20% → Temptation to book profits early
• Another down 10% → Hope it recovers, hold too long
• Result: “Cut flowers, water weeds”

Portfolio approach:

• Build 10-stock portfolio with equal allocation
• Track only total portfolio return (not individual stocks)
• Exit ALL stocks together when portfolio hits +12-15% OR -8% stop-loss
• No cherry-picking, no exceptions

This removes 90% of emotional decisions and forces disciplined execution.

4. Quarterly Rotation Prevents Attachment and Captures Momentum

The cardinal rule: Exit your entire portfolio before the next quarter’s earnings season begins, regardless of individual stock performance.

Why?

• Last quarter’s high-growth companies rarely repeat next quarter
• Growth momentum naturally decays after 2-3 months
• New quarter brings fresh high-growth opportunities
• Prevents emotional attachment: “New quarter = New stocks = New box”

This forced rotation is the secret sauce that maintains consistency over years.

The Complete 5-Step Strategy Framework

Step 1: Fundamental Screening (Week 1 of Result Season)

Objective: Filter 4,000 liquid stocks down to 20-30 high-quality candidates

Platform: Screener.in (free version sufficient)

The 10 Parameters:

*Exception: Account for seasonal businesses (compare like-for-like quarters)

How to Set Up:

1. Create free account on Screener.in
2. Click “Create New Screen”
3. Input all 10 parameters (Prakash provides ready-made code)
4. Enable email alerts for automatic notifications
5. Run quarterly when earnings season begins

Typical Results: 20-30 stocks qualify (varies by quarter strength)

Step 2: Deep Dive Verification (10 Minutes Per Stock)

Objective: Manually verify the 20-30 stocks to build final watchlist of 5-10 stocks

The screener does 80% of work, but these manual checks catch hidden problems:

Check #1: Quarterly Results Table (3 Lines Only)

Open each stock on Screener.in, look at quarterly results:

Sales Line:

• Verify it’s genuinely the highest in last 10 quarters
• Check for seasonality patterns

Operating Margin (OPM) Line:

• Should NOT decline significantly
• Example: 40% → 39% ✅ OK | 40% → 35% ❌ Reject
• Rule: Within 10% of historical range

Net Profit Line:

• Must also be at all-time high
• Confirms quality of growth

Check #2: Balance Sheet Table (1 Line Only)

Borrowings Line:

• Should NOT increase drastically
• Example: ₹50Cr → ₹55Cr ✅ OK | ₹50Cr → ₹100Cr ❌ Red flag
• Proportional increase with sales growth is acceptable

Check #3: Shareholding Pattern (3 Items)

FII/DII Holdings:

• Increasing = ✅ Good
• Decreasing but promoter/other institutions increasing = ✅ OK
• Decreasing with public increasing = ❌ Skip (institutions exiting)

Why This Matters: FIIs have access to management, plant visits, and deep research. If they’re accumulating, there’s likely hidden quality you can’t see.

Time-Saving Tool: Excel Rating System

Prakash created an automated Excel sheet:

1. Copy stock parameters from Screener.in
2. Paste into Excel
3. Instant rating: Strong Buy / Buy / Deep Dive / No

Result: 20-30 stocks → 5-10 watchlist stocks in 2-3 hours total

Step 3: Technical Entry – Building Your Portfolio (10-15 Days)

Objective: Wait for technical entry signals, build 10-stock portfolio gradually

Critical Rule: Never buy on result announcement day, even if fundamentals are perfect.

The Best Entry Strategy: 15-20% Retracement from Post-Result High

How It Works:

Pre-result price: ₹1,000
↓
Results announced (strong)
↓
Stock surges to ₹1,250 (+25%)
↓
Wait... (retail FOMO buying)
↓
Stock retraces over 10-15 days
↓
ENTRY ZONE: ₹1,000-1,050 (15-20% below peak)
+ RSI returns above 50 (optional confirmation)
= BUY SIGNAL

Why This Works:

• You avoid the retail-driven euphoria
• Enter near pre-result “fair value”
• Fundamentals support the stock
• Risk-reward heavily in your favor

Alternative Entry Strategies (Choose What Suits You)

Option A: Multiple EMA Convergence

• Plot 10 EMAs (10, 20, 30…100) on chart
• When stock retraces and all EMAs converge = Strong support zone
• Entry when price touches this convergence zone
• Stop-loss below the convergence

Option B: Previous High Support

• Stock consolidates 2-3 months at a level (say ₹800-900)
• Results come, breaks out to ₹1,200
• Retraces back to previous consolidation zone (₹800-900)
• Entry in this old resistance = new support zone

Option C: 20 & 100 EMA System

• All three 100 EMA lines (high, close, low) rising = Uptrend
• All three 20 EMA lines above 100 EMA = Momentum aligned
• Entry when price crosses above 20 EMA high line
• Stop-loss at 20 EMA low line

Prakash’s Advice: “Pick one setup, master it. Technical is just timing—fundamentals do the heavy lifting.”

Portfolio Construction Rules

Equal Allocation:

• Divide capital into 10 equal parts
• Example: ₹10 lakhs = ₹1 lakh per stock
• No “high conviction” bigger bets

Gradual Entry:

• Don’t buy all 10 stocks same day
• Build over 10-15 days as each hits entry signal
• Some watchlist stocks may never reach your entry (accept this)

Final Portfolio: 10 stocks, equal weight, all fundamentally strong

Step 4: Holding Period – The Art of Doing Nothing (2-3 Months)

Objective: Let the portfolio work while you live your life

Daily Routine (5 Minutes):

1. Check portfolio total value after 3:30 PM
2. Calculate: Current portfolio % = ?
3. Check: Is it ≥+12% OR ≤-8%?
4. If NO → Close app, do nothing
5. If YES → Plan exit for next day

What NOT to Do:

• ❌ Check individual stock prices
• ❌ Read news about your holdings obsessively
• ❌ Watch intraday movements
• ❌ Listen to TV analysts discussing your stocks
• ❌ Feel FOMO about other “hot stocks”

What WILL Happen:

• Some stocks will be +20%
• Some will be +5%
• Some will be -8%
• Some will be flat

What MATTERS:

• Only portfolio average matters
• 10 stocks = 1 unit
• Judge the unit, not components

Expected Timeframe:

• Typically 6-10 weeks to reach +12-15% target
• Sometimes as quick as 4 weeks in bull markets
• Sometimes hits -8% stop in 3-4 weeks (rare but happens)

Step 5: Exit – The Discipline That Defines Success

Three Exit Triggers (Exit ALL Stocks When ANY Occurs):

Trigger 1: Portfolio Target Hit (+12-15%)

Example:

Stock A: +22%
Stock B: +18%
Stock C: +8%
Stock D: -3%
Stock E: +5%
Stock F: +12%
Stock G: -7%
Stock H: +15%
Stock I: +10%
Stock J: +8%

Portfolio Average: +9.8% → HOLD

Two weeks later:

Portfolio Average: +13.2% → EXIT ALL 10 STOCKS

Critical: Exit the -7% loser AND the +22% winner together. No exceptions.

Trigger 2: Portfolio Stop-Loss Hit (-8%)

If portfolio drops to -8% below entry:

• Exit all 10 stocks immediately
• Accept the loss (system working, not failing)
• Take 1-2 week break
• Prepare for next quarter

Prakash’s Experience: This happens 1-2 times per 2 years. Every time, the next quarter was profitable.

Trigger 3: Quarter Ending (Mandatory Rotation)

Before next quarter’s earnings season starts (usually before Infosys announces):

• Exit entire portfolio
• Even if at +5%, even if at -2%
• Even if you love the stocks

Why?

• Last quarter’s winners ≠ Next quarter’s winners
• Growth momentum decays
• Prevents emotional attachment
• Forces fresh analysis each quarter

New Quarter = New Screening = New Stocks = New Box

Risk Management: The Portfolio Approach

Why 10 Stocks, Not 1-3?

Diversification = Humility

No matter how good your research:

• Some stocks will disappoint (management issues, industry changes)
• Some will underperform (timing off)
• Some will massively outperform (compensate for losers)

With 10 stocks:

• If 7 are profitable, 3 are losers → Still likely +12-15% portfolio
• If 5 are profitable, 5 are losers → Might hit stop-loss, but controlled at -8%
• If you picked 1 stock and it’s the loser → Potential -30-40% disaster

Stop-Loss Philosophy

Portfolio-Level Stop-Loss (Recommended for Beginners):

• Track overall portfolio value
• Exit all when portfolio hits -8%
• Rarely triggers if screening is rigorous

Individual Stock Stop-Loss (For Advanced/Single Stock Traders):

• Each stock: -8 to -10% maximum loss
• Must be respected without exception
• Mid/small-caps can fall 20-30% in bad scenarios

Stop-Loss Hunting Reality: Bigger players do hunt stop-losses. They know where retail clusters their stops.

Solution:

• Portfolio approach reduces this impact
• Or place stops slightly wider (9% instead of 8%)
• System-based execution (not manual panic exits)

Position Sizing Based on Capital

Real Results & Realistic Expectations

The Mathematics of Compounding

Conservative Scenario (12% per quarter):

Starting: ₹10,00,000

Q1: +12% = ₹11,20,000
Q2: +12% = ₹12,54,400
Q3: +12% = ₹14,04,929
Q4: +12% = ₹15,73,521

Annual Return: 57.35% (compounded)

Realistic Scenario (Variable returns):

Starting: ₹10,00,000

Q1: +14% = ₹11,40,000
Q2: +8% = ₹12,31,200
Q3: -8% (stop-loss) = ₹11,32,704
Q4: +15% = ₹13,02,610

Annual Return: 30.26%

Even with one losing quarter, you significantly outperform market indices.

Year-by-Year Progression

Year 1 (Learning):

• Expected: 25-35% annual return
• Focus: Process over profits
• Goal: Complete all 4 quarters following rules

Year 2-3 (Consistency):

• Expected: 40-55% annual return
• Focus: Refining execution
• Goal: Handle first stop-loss quarter calmly

Year 4+ (Mastery):

• Expected: 50-70% annual return
• Focus: Scaling capital
• Goal: Sustainable passive income

What Can Go Wrong?

Common Failures (Avoid These):

• Buying on result day instead of waiting
• Cherry-picking (selling winners, holding losers)
• Holding across quarters (attachment to stocks)
• Over-leveraging (trading with borrowed money)
• Breaking stop-loss discipline

Market-Related Issues:

• Severe bear markets (2-3 consecutive stop-loss quarters possible)
• Weak earnings quarters (only 3-4 stocks qualify)
• Liquidity issues in very small-caps
• Regulatory changes affecting small-cap trading

Tools You Need (All Free)

1. Screener.in

• Purpose: Fundamental screening
• Cost: Free (premium optional, not necessary)
• Features: Email alerts, custom ratios, historical data
• Setup Time: 1 hour first time

2. TradingView

• Purpose: Technical analysis and charts
• Cost: Free (sufficient for this strategy)
• Features: Daily/weekly charts, EMA indicators, price alerts
• Setup Time: 30 minutes

3. Excel Rating Sheet

• Purpose: Quick quality assessment
• Cost: Free (Prakash provides template)
• Features: Automated Strong Buy/Buy/No ratings
• Setup Time: 5 minutes

4. Portfolio Tracker

• Purpose: Daily portfolio monitoring
• Options: Excel sheet, Google Sheets, or broker platform
• Data Needed: Entry date, price, quantity, current value
• Time: 5 minutes daily

Total Setup Investment: 2-3 hours one-time, all free tools

Getting Started: Your Action Plan

Week 1: Setup Phase

• [ ] Create Screener.in account
• [ ] Create TradingView account
• [ ] Download Excel rating template
• [ ] Practice screening with old quarter data

Week 2-3: Learning Phase

• [ ] Watch Prakash’s full podcast interview
• [ ] Run test screening, verify 5-10 stocks
• [ ] Practice deep dive on 3-4 historical stocks
• [ ] Familiarize with technical entry setups

Week 4: Decision Phase

• [ ] Decide: Real money or paper trade first?
• [ ] If real: Start with 50% of intended capital
• [ ] Set calendar alert for next earnings season
• [ ] Prepare capital allocation

Next Quarter (First Live Trade):

• [ ] Run screening when earnings begin
• [ ] Build watchlist (5-10 stocks)
• [ ] Wait for technical entries (patience!)
• [ ] Build portfolio gradually
• [ ] Set portfolio alerts (+12%, -8%)
• [ ] Hold 2-3 months
• [ ] Exit when trigger hits
• [ ] Review and document learnings

Who This Strategy Is Perfect For

✅ Ideal For:

• Working professionals (limited screen time)
• Swing traders (2-3 month timeframe)
• Systematic/process-oriented traders
• Capital range: ₹5-50 lakhs
• Those comfortable with mid/small-cap volatility
• Patient individuals who can wait weeks for setups

❌ NOT Suitable For:

• Intraday traders (different timeframe)
• Option traders (these stocks often lack options)
• Long-term investors (quarterly rotation contradicts buy-and-hold)
• Those seeking daily excitement
• Traders who can’t follow rigid rules
• Under-capitalized (<₹2 lakhs, can’t diversify properly)

Key Takeaways: The 10 Commandments

1. Fundamentals First (80%), Technical Second (20%) – Never reverse this ratio
2. Patience is Profit – Buy during retracement, never on result day
3. Portfolio Over Individual – Exit all together, no cherry-picking
4. Quarterly Rotation is Non-Negotiable – New quarter = New stocks
5. System Over Emotions – Follow Excel ratings, respect stops
6. Equal Weight, Equal Risk – Every stock gets 10% allocation
7. Time in Process, Not Screen – 5-10 minutes daily is enough
8. Realistic Targets – 12-15% quarterly = 50-60% annually
9. Losses Are Part of System – Stop-loss quarters will happen (1-2 per 2 years)
10. Consistency Over Perfection – Boring execution beats brilliant discretion

Conclusion: Your Path to Consistent Returns

Prakash Behura’s journey proves that you don’t need to be the smartest trader—you need to be the most disciplined.

His strategy works because it:

• Removes emotional decision-making (systematic screening)
• Prevents timing mistakes (patient entry rules)
• Controls risk automatically (portfolio approach + stops)
• Forces profit-taking (quarterly rotation)
• Fits busy lifestyles (minimal time requirement)

The real secret? It’s boring. And boring works.

No daily excitement. No adrenaline rushes. No “hot tips” or “killer setups.”

Just: Screen → Verify → Wait → Buy → Hold → Exit → Repeat.

Done consistently for years, this “boring” system compounds into life-changing returns.

Next Steps

Immediate Actions:

1. Save this guide for reference
2. Mark next quarterly earnings season on calendar (mid-Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct)
3. Set up Screener.in account this week
4. Paper trade one full quarter before committing real money
5. Join the community (links below) for ongoing support

Resources:

• Original Podcast Interview: [Insert YouTube Link]
• Prakash’s Excel Rating Sheet: [Download Link]
• Screener.in Ready-Made Screen: [Access Link]
• TradingView EMA Indicator: [Add to Favorites Link]
• Free Email Course (5-Day Setup Guide): [Subscribe Link]

Questions? Drop them in the comments. Focus on process questions, not specific stock recommendations.

Important Disclaimer

This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All stock market investments carry risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

• Consult with a SEBI-registered investment advisor before trading
• Only invest risk capital you can afford to lose
• Do your own due diligence on every stock
• The author and website are not responsible for your trading decisions

Trade responsibly. Follow the system. Stay disciplined.

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Tags: #SwingTrading #StockScreening #QuarterlyTrading #PortfolioManagement #MidCapInvesting #SystematicTrading #IndianStockMarket